More risk management than compliance
Setting aside the technical concerns, even the attempt to create such a partnership signals that Microsoft is either taking seriously the threat of a kill switch, or at least believes that enterprise executives are concerned enough to make this move to placate them.
“This agreement will have to be tested in court once the problem happens, when it could be too late,” Forrester’s Maisto said. “This is not compliance as much as risk management. The likelihood is really really low in my opinion, but the impact would be massive.”
Kirschner said the marketing finesse of the Microsoft/SAP deal deserves some applause.
“This agreement is a strategic masterstroke that effectively turns sovereign cloud from a compliance blocker into a disaster recovery plan,” Kirschner said. “By offering a break glass option where local partners like Delos and Bleu can access source code during geopolitical ruptures, the EU tries to guarantee digital sovereignty and resilience in crisis scenarios. But can it really work?”
He paints the picture in terms of geopolitics.
“While hardliners like France want to ban US cloud providers from the highest sovereign level, Microsoft paradoxically cements its vendor lock-in,” Kirschner said. “They have removed the single biggest political risk to using American hyperscalers in the public sector. But what is the alternative? The EU simply doesn’t have the technology, nor the infrastructure, to be truly independent from the big three in the US.”
