MIT has started taking a count of AI agents around the world to get a larger view on how technology could replace human labor.
The “Iceberg Index” counts the different types of AI agents conducting work previously done by human labor. The initial index numbers indicate that just 13,000 agents could expose 151 million human workers, or about 11.7% of the workforce population, to job or wage losses.
The research paper said the AI agent population — which could ultimately overtake the human population — needs to be quantified. The metric provides a snapshot of how the AI era is shifting productivity, skill development, and job creation and development.
Because existing employment numbers from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics look backward, not forward, an AI job index is needed, the researchers said. They argued the data offers a forward-looking view how AI will replace workers and helps leaders plan for skills development and investment planning.
“The labor market is evolving faster than current data systems can capture,” the researchers said, adding that “existing workforce planning frameworks were designed for human-only economies.”
The job or wage losses are due to automation at companies, which is already happening, the study notes. AI is commonly used to generate code and is being used to automate a variety of administrative and support tasks.
Typical employment indexes cover job loss numbers, but fail to capture opportunities created by AI in areas such as gig marketplaces, AI copilots, and freelance networks. “By the time these changes appear in official statistics, policymakers may already be reacting to yesterday’s disruptions, committing billions to programs that target skills already displaced,” the researchers said.
MIT is taking on a big challenge as predicting jobs created and lost to AI will be a challenge, said Jack Gold, analyst at J. Gold Associates. “It’s clear that AI does some things well, but it’s also clear we do not yet fully understand the full extent of its capabilities and its drawbacks,” he said.
Projecting more than a few years out, when agentic AI will come into its own, is really difficult, Gold said. “I would take any predictions as potentially not very accurate at this early point in AI deployments,” he said.
AI has more potential to assist rather than replace people in the next few years, even as physical AI arises, Gold said.
Nonetheless, the lack of AI-related employment data is already a concern. In September, some of the top US economists sent a letter asking the US Department of Labor to “improve on these datasets to help policymakers and researchers better evaluate how AI is reshaping labor markets.”
The numbers will help with the collection of high-quality economic data that will inform policy to address the workforce issues AI creates, the economists argued. The signees included Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen, former chairs of the US Federal Reserve.
Recent employment statistics from Challenger, Gray and Christmas showed that 153,074 jobs had been taken away by AI. Many of those were positions were considered corporate bloat and entry-level roles.
A number of companies, including Amazon and Meta, have been downsizing their workforces while boosting AI investments. Corporations are slowly rolling out AI agents for knowledge management, administrative tasks, and quality control.
BASF Agricultural Solutions, for instance, has deployed 1,000 Copilot agents, while EY has 41,000 agents in production, the companies said at a panel discussion at Microsoft’s Ignite trade show, which was held last month. But the AI tools currently in production are aimed at augmenting human productivity as opposed to replacing them, the panelists said during the discussion.
The MIT researchers did not respond to request for comment.
