But even at release, the system lets enterprises run longer quantum programs than before, with a wider variety of potential applications, says Crowder.
Another breakthrough is its error correction. Last year, IBM demonstrated that it can do error correction on classical computers quickly and cheaply enough to be practical, on off-the-shelf components — specifically, AMD’s FPGA chip and now it’s commercially available. “And we did it a year early,” added Crowder.
IBM now also has the technology to couple multiple quantum chips together into larger systems. “Nighthawk is going to be the chip that is the basis for building these systems,” says Crowder.
By the end of 2026, Nighthawk’s new modular architecture and advanced error-correction will allow it to support 7,500 gates and get to 10,000 gates in 2027 — and 15,000 in 2028.
The average company won’t see any immediate benefit, says Gartner’s Horvath. “But if you were in charge of a capital markets desk, you might use this,” he says. “If you were in charge of logistics, you might use this to optimize your routes.”
And if you’re in charge of cybersecurity, it might be time to upgrade to quantum-safe encryption, he said. “You need to be on PQC [post-quantum cryptography] by 2030,” he says. “We think that commercial actors will have the ability to start breaking digital signatures by 2032 if the current timelines hold up.”
