Apple’s alleged decision to suspend development of a lighter and cheaper Vision Pro device sounds a lot worse than it actually is, because in a short time the product will be seen as the Newton of the AR age.
Why the Newton? Vision Pro is ahead of its time. To build it, Apple pushed the envelope on operating systems, user interfaces, usability and materials and process design. This resulted in an expensive device that, while cutting edge, hit market far before the applications and experiences to make such devices essential had been born.
But lessons have been learned.
What we now know
We can see where the most sophisticated use cases can be found — across the enterprise, medical, engineering, product design, mechanics, training and beyond. Those markets haven’t disappeared and will be quite well-served by the M5-powered Vision Pro Apple unveiled today.
Those lessons will also feed into other visionOS products Apple is working on, including its long-anticipated AR glasses. These will combine much of what users already enjoy in visionOS with new features designed to exploit both the glasses form factor augmented by useful tools from across the iOS ecosystem; that includes features like sign translation, ambient local information provision, maps, and computing experiences that mean your Mac will be worn like sunglasses.
What’s the matter with Meta?
Lazily compared with Meta’s AR glasses, Apple’s offering will be more about helping you as a user than selling you advertising, and will benefit from the tech it has been building for Vision Pro. We’ll let the markets decide if what Apple comes up with will be better than Meta’s machines. But given Cupertino’s track record and the sheer achievement encapsulated by Vision Pro, it is unlikely to be as limited — no matter how many engineers Meta’s HR team manages to poach.
You see, it’s all about ideas.
It’s ideas that powered up the Newton. And the ideas that will inform Apple’s visionOS glasses are already partially visible in Vision Pro, a device that has been described as being ahead of its time since before it shipped. The advances it exemplifies will inform industry development for years. Newton did the same, arguably forming the core of the ideas that drove the entire smartphone era (including the amazing Apple Silicon chips that continue to transform Apple’s business).
Seeing the future in our yesterdays
You can get some sense of what these forthcoming augmented reality glasses will be like by taking a look at the iPhone Air. That molded battery inside iPhone Air? That is probably a hint at how the company can get decent battery life from a pair of glasses. Those low-energy, but highly performant, processors Apple likes to use? That matters when it comes to AR specs, which cannot ever be hot to wear, not matter how many FaceTime chats you are involved in.
The game’s afoot, and there’s something at stake. Meta currently holds 75.6% of the combined AR/VR + display less smart glasses market, according to IDC. (Apple has around 5.2%.) But the market is still pretty small, with only about 10 million sold each year. That makes this a segment high in potential, rich in opportunity for expansion, and — despite its early advantage —a market that is Meta’s to lose.
Can Apple take the throne? I think so, given the company has more hardware and software design experience, a vibrant ecosystem, and huge user loyalty. Perhaps more importantly, Apple is seen as a firm that’s all about privacy, which isn’t an advantage Meta can easily be seen to enjoy. That matters when you’re taking about wearable devices equipped with video cameras.
Think different
Apple’s other advantage comes in the form of all the real-world usability cases it has been able to identify for the Vision Pro. Many of these uses will be ably supported by Apple’s AR glasses, and the apps people have already made for those industries will be supported, too. Those not supported might only need the slightly revised M5 Vision Pro devices.
Down the road, as the technology improves and the cost of manufacturing declines, Apple will be able to introduce more Vision Pro-based ideas to its glasses systems, while also building a more affordable Vision Pro successor in a couple of years. The latter may could potentially be made in the US, if Apple invests in the futuristic manufacturing capacity such systems require.
I believe Vision Pro is the Newton for this tech evolution. The ideas it exemplifies will inform product development for the next decade.
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