As the 2025 holiday season approaches, fraud activity is already accelerating.
According to data from KasadaIQ, attackers are starting earlier, automating faster, and leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) to blur the line between human and bot activity.
Across retail, hospitality, and quick service restaurant (QSR) industries, researchers warn that this year’s fraud landscape may surpass all previous records in both scale and sophistication.
Unwrapping the Top Holiday Fraud Trends of 2025
Fraud operations have evolved into an industrialized ecosystem.
Automation kits, stolen account data, and malicious configurations — known as configs — are traded with the same efficiency as legitimate software tools.
Generative AI is fueling this trend, enabling attackers to mimic authentic consumer behavior and bypass traditional fraud detection systems.
KasadaIQ’s analysis reveals that adversaries are pre-positioning for the holiday period with early configuration sales, higher automation, and more adaptive attack patterns.
The convergence of AI, automation, and underground marketplaces means fraud is no longer limited to major shopping days — it is a continuous, data-driven enterprise.
Trend 1: Fraud Campaigns Are Starting Weeks Earlier
Attackers are no longer waiting for Black Friday.
KasadaIQ tracked a 92% increase in malicious configurations targeting retail and a 400% increase against accommodation industries between January and October 2025.
These configurations — scripts used for credential stuffing, scraping, and automated checkout — are now being deployed 10 to 14 days before peak sales.
This shift allows adversaries to test infrastructure, refine attack scripts, and sell proven configurations ahead of the holiday rush.
Organizations that only activate heightened monitoring during Thanksgiving week will likely miss the preparatory attacks that set the stage for large-scale fraud.
Trend 2: Account Takeover Is the Fastest-Growing Fraud Channel
Account takeover (ATO) remains the most active vector for holiday fraud.
Kasada’s telemetry found more than 311 million stolen accounts listed across dark web marketplaces in 2025 — 63% belonging to retail brands.
Attackers use large-scale credential-stuffing campaigns to access consumer accounts and exploit stored payment data, loyalty points, or shopping carts.
These attacks are often timed in the week before Black Friday, when accounts are fully loaded with value.
In just one month, Kasada observed over 1,100 credential-stuffing incidents across 133 retailers, compromising an estimated 265,000 accounts.
Security teams should treat ATO as an ongoing, intelligence-driven campaign, not an isolated event.
Trend 3: Gift Cards Remain the Preferred Monetization Tool
Gift cards continue to be the most efficient channel for converting stolen assets into profit.
Kasada identified 8.9 million stolen retail cards and 7.5 million QSR cards listed for sale.
Fraudsters favor gift cards because they are anonymous, fast to resell, and difficult to trace.
Retail card activity spikes before Black Friday and Cyber Monday, while QSR cards peak later in December.
Security teams should monitor for unusual redemption velocity, repeated balance checks, and suspicious API calls that verify card validity.
Trend 4: AI-Powered Bots Will Dominate Traffic
For the first time, AI-driven bots are expected to account for the majority of holiday web traffic.
Kasada predicts a 520% increase in AI-generated requests compared to 2024.
These bots mimic human behavior with random movements, hesitations, and input variability — making them difficult to distinguish from legitimate shoppers.
AI bots are being used to enroll fake loyalty accounts, scrape pricing data, and complete automated purchases within milliseconds.
Because many interact directly with backend APIs, traditional web-based rate limiting and pattern recognition are becoming ineffective.
Organizations should adopt behavioral fingerprinting and API-level anomaly detection to combat these threats.
Trend 5: Adversaries Are Monetizing Faster
Kasada’s monitoring of criminal forums shows that compromised data now moves from breach to resale in under five days.
Automation has shortened the fraud lifecycle dramatically — attackers steal, process, and sell data before defenders can respond. This speed compresses investigation windows and increases pressure on incident response (IR) teams.
Security operations centers (SOCs) must integrate fraud telemetry into real-time monitoring and leverage automated alerts to identify brand-specific threats early.
Collaboration between fraud and cybersecurity teams is essential to match the speed of modern adversaries.
How to Strengthen Holiday Fraud Defenses
This year’s holiday threat landscape demands faster, smarter, and more unified defenses.
Fraud prevention cannot operate in isolation from cybersecurity operations. To prepare, organizations should do the following:
- Start monitoring earlier: Shift fraud readiness two weeks ahead of traditional timelines and baseline normal traffic.
- Protect account integrity: Use adaptive multi-factor authentication (MFA) and detect logins from automated or unusual device types.
- Defend APIs: Implement authentication and rate controls at the API layer, where most bots now operate.
- Unify fraud and security operations: Combine ATO, bot detection, and fraud analytics under a single operational view.
- Monitor criminal marketplaces: Track configuration sales and brand mentions to detect upcoming campaigns before they peak.
By taking these basic steps, organizations can build cyber resilience against fraudulent activity.
AI Is Accelerating Cyber Attacks
Attacks are faster, more adaptive, and increasingly automated, fueled by the widespread use of artificial intelligence and easily accessible attack automation tools.
Threat actors are continuously refining their tactics, learning from defensive responses, and exploiting vulnerabilities.
As AI use by threat actors increases, we’ll likely see a reduction in the time it takes to develop exploits for known vulnerabilities.
To counter this accelerating threat landscape, many organizations are turning to zero-trust tools that continuously verify users, devices, and connections before granting access.
