An expected macroeconomic slowdown resulting from global oil shortages and sharply higher energy costs will affect business confidence and consumer spending, Minton said.
The war between the US, Israel, and Iran has shown no signs of slowing, and US President Donald Trump has made increasingly dire threats against Iran. The fighting has already caused disruptions in supply chains that could disrupt hardware upgrades and AI infrastructure buildouts.
IDC’s current forecast is conditional, meaning it’s contingent on the war ending by summer. “If things are wrapped up within the next two or three months…, that does leave half a year for recovery… [for] oil prices to normalize, supply chains to reopen, and for economic growth to recover,” Minton said.
